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Realpolitik vs Political TheatreWhy do people not understand realpolitik?
This minerals deal was a backdoor scheme to pull Ukraine under the US's security umbrella almost immediately. To get around the fact that Ukraine has ZERO legal path to NATO membership before 2040, at the earliest?
NATO has rules. Its an organization with a charter, bylaws, etc. UKRAINE CANNOT JOIN. Not until it is no longer in a military conflict, and all of its border disputes are settled with treaties. And then a ten year waiting period.
NATO countries are NOT ALLOWED to have troops in Ukraine, simply by virtue of being members of NATO, while Ukraine is in a military conflict with disputed borders.
Ergo, there is ZERO possibility of any troops from NATO countries being stationed there before 2040, IF EVER.
So how could the US find a way around all of these limitations that we can actually protect Ukraine from future Russian invasion?
Diplomatic-legal chicanery: have US-domiciled companies running businesses that are considered vital to the national security interests of the US operating inside Ukrainian borders.
That way, if Russia considers future invasions, the USA can pre-empt the Russkies and say "our national security interests are at stake, so we would consider any such action on Russia's part an act of war against the US".
So this deal would have given Ukraine an IMPLICIT security guarantee from the USA itself. Not even weak-willed NATO, but the USA. And from day 1; not 10 years after all military conflicts are ended and all border conflicts have come to a legal conclusion.
Because Ukraine CANNOT have an EXPLICIT security guarantee.
Yet Trump figured out a way around all of this. Found a way to get Ukraine under its security umbrella. Almost immediately, in fact, if Ukraine wanted it:
- declare a ceasefire;
- get the US mineral deal signed;
- make a peace with Russia; and
- US companies with national security goals go in
