Heres is what the final map will probably look like:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/4u1zk2xb.pngBased on this:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/t9zxyscf.pngFound here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_election_results_by_stateI initially left georgia as a wild-card on the theory that once democrats are in office, it becomes hard to overcome them. However, theres another theory, that those states that swung for trump in 2020 will do so again in 2024.
Also georgia is historically red.
I doubled-down on this theory on the basis that if georgia was lock-in for harris she wouldn't have to focus so much on PA. But she is. Thats all we see. And the reason we see that is because her campaigns already decided georgia is all but lost for them.
I put almost no weight in voter sentiment over the last 4-8 years, only going by historic record.
For the bellweather model all the bellwethers stopped being accurate in 2004. They haven't been accurate since, at least on the state level.
This is all about first to 270, nothing else.
Now for counties:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_StatesWith the county bellwether system, you'll note of six presidential selections, they were all wrong.
Thats a collapse in accuracy to just 1.5%
I'd even say they've inverted, becoming a strong indicator of their opposite, at least in the current political configuration of the nation. Ohio, New Mexico, and Missouri, all going for Trump.
Going by just those three bellwethers, thats 32 points up for grab. Of which trump will comfortably claim 27. If the inversion model is correct, thats actually a 84.37% chance against trump, versus about a 1-in-6 chance against harris.
This doesn't account for the times bellwethers are wrong of course, but going by this:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/ns4kgy95.pngIf we multiply the odds and invert them, we get 0.92
0.930.96 = 0.821376
prediction accuracy. In other-words, we get a 82.1% accuracy when a candidate carries all three states, or about 1-in-5 odds in the inverted case.
But lets say we don't invert odds, and discounting the cumulative point affects, instead using the bellwhethers as intended.
With trump carrying missouri (96% accuracy, before 2004), and ohio (93% accuracy),
Because odds are always multiplied, we get 0.96
0.93 = 0.8928, or 89.28% chance of winning.
Carrying only NM, harris has a 92% chance of winning.
Of course this isn't exactly how odds work but I digress, its a simple analysis.
Whats that say?
It says either we will see a surprise upset in one of the undecided states, and/or one of the decided states that are 'solid red' or 'solid blue'. Discounting the unlikelihood of that (even considering voter sentiment on immigration, war, and economic policy),
But what are the signals here?
Look at how hard she's campaigning in fucking pennsylvania
.
Out of the eight last presidential elections, democrats were selected in seven of them.
Only voting red once
, for which
president?
A state thats solid union. A state thats libshit central. The rural vote has become more important here than the city vote. And the republicans put on a strong showing, or at least maga-wearing-the-skinned-face-of-the-worthless-GOP-like-a-hannibal-lecter-mask (lol).
In otherwords, someone on the cocaine-orgy-train known as the kamala campaign realized the same thing I did: the states that voted for trump in 2020 are way more likely than surface appearance, to vote for him again, especially after four years of biden.
So rather than decide it at PA, lets leave PA as a toss-up for a moment.
Lets talk wisconsin and michigan.
For the past eight or nine elections they voted all blue, except again, for one election, donald trump in 2020.
As it stands harris is at 232, and trump is at 262.
Harris would need to take wisconsin, michigan, and PA to win, 6 points over 270.
if trump takes PA, he wins with 281 points, and then even with wisconsin and michigan, harris is only at 257 points.
Even with PA, she is unlikey to also take both wisconsin and michigan considering the last four years of biden, and trump managing to get the unions not to endorse a presidential candidate.
If PA goes blue, and michigan does too (with a last minute turnaround or endorsement of kamala), her campaign finishes with 266 points, and trump with 272.
In other words they're pinned on the fork of a dilemma.
trump only needs to take PA
or wisconsin.
If kamala takes PA, she has to take michigan
and wisconsin.
Heres a breakdown for those nodding along:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/ffly6mpd.pngUnder 9 circumstances, theres only one way she gets to 270+.
Now we know what the 'abolish the electoral college' outrage was about.
Now we know what packing the supreme court was about.
Now we know why they're worried about pennsylvania and early voting.
But will don be selected?
Listen I haven't been wrong about a presidential election (or a senate race, or a supreme court pick even despite all the controversy to keep kavanugh or that one catholic DEI convenience-pick whore) since george bush jr.
Heres what I think happens. Conservatively he initially wins the popular by six or seven points.
Voting gets dragged out and goes on for a whole month this time, or maybe three weeks, but longer than it did before in any case.
He 'loses' the popular vote, and wins the electoral vote (because this is how presidential selections work), or it is heavily reported in the media that he lost the popular vote. Whatever the case may be.
We go to war in mid november to late january, either in the middle east, in taiwan and asia, eastern europe, or something happens here in the u.s. to cancel elections (unlikely).
The riot model is rolled out for any number of reasons, take your pick: black church shot up by a 'white straight christian lunatic', another george floyd, another pandemic, cyberattack, whatever, doesn't really matter.
The elections are hotly contested.
One or more supremes either steps down "for personal reasons", or more likely 'switches sides' or is killed or badly injured, deferring to a subordinate.
The radio stations and media feed the flames.
The banks crash the economy under trump to feed it further, and along with the street violence, and threat of war, use it to force concessions from the GOP, politically paralyzing anything trump tries to do, essentially defering power to the mil-intelligence apparatus, not officially, but in practice, like happened under trump before.
And this will be the shape of the elections and the america to come.
Unless a few of the states throw us a curve ball, and swing blue, but given how worried the democrats are about PA, I suspect all their deals already fell through, otherwise they wouldn't be this desperate and afraid.
And this is how presidential selections are made to look like hotly contested presidential elections.
